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Next-generation flood warning software
Dr Hannah Cloke explains how researchers from King's College London and Hohai University have now found a solution to the urgent need for more advanced software that can help to avoid the devastating effects of flooding
Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster across the globe, and the worst natural disaster in the UK, causing annual damage of about £1.5 billion. This figure is expected to increase to £3.5 billion over the next few years (Association of British Insurers). Floods that took place in China over the past decade were ranked the worst among recorded floods worldwide in terms of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Against this background, the establishment of effective systems for flood risk analysis, assessment, prediction and management has become a priority in many flood prone countries.
Researchers from King's College London and Hohai University have now found a solution to the urgent need for more advanced software that can help to avoid the devastating effects of flooding. The two institutions are together developing a ground-breaking software system, the Novel Early Flood Warning System (NEWS). NEWS will be the first commercially viable, multipurpose early flood warning system to take into account both climate change and corresponding hydrological effects. It will be able to perform early and reliable flood event warning for short-term (a few hours) and medium-term (a few days) as well as risk analysis, which is currently unachievable with conventional models and software.
Several software expert systems capable of performing flood analysis have been successfully commercialized, including Halcrow's ISIS and Delft Hydraulics' FEWS. According to the researchers, none of these systems, however, has the capability to (1) incorporate multiple weather forecasts and post-forecast data processing into one system to achieve reliable flood warning, (2) assess uncertainty and risk of an ensemble forecasts and (3) provide Application Programming Interface (API) Web services with interactive flood risk mapping.
Potential end-users of NEWS include insurance companies (using flood risk maps to estimate loss values and calculate premium to be allocated to specific regions), engineering consulting firms (to provide sound climate-proof design for flood defences and other hydraulic structures), research and educational institutions as well as government authorities.
Dr Hannah Cloke, who co-leads the project at King's College London, is excited about the potential of the new software: "The new system will satisfy many unmet technological demands in the field of flood prediction and risk analysis, and will bring significant benefits and commercial value to the private and public sector – in addition to the many lives we hope it will save! We have already received significant interest from industries and governments, and are excited to take the project to the next level with the development of a commercial prototype."
The feasibility and commercial promise of the software has already been demonstrated successfully in the Upper Severn Catchment in the UK and subsequently in the Upper Huai Catchment in China. The new technology integrates a multiple numerical weather/climate prediction system through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) with hydrological and hydraulic models to offer an effective, state-of-the-art early forecasting system for flood event prediction and risk analysis. A recently granted Proof of Concept award from ICUK will take the development work to the next stage, supporting the translation of NEWS from a research prototype into a commercial system.
Prof. Zhijia Li, who leads the research at Hohai University, adds: "ICUK has provided us with an excellent opportunity for King's and Hohai to form a synergetic collaboration that allows both sides to reinforce their core expertise. As climate change is expected to herald in a new wave of extreme floods, we are beginning to see emphasis on effective flood forecasting with quantifiable uncertainties and minimum tolerance for error. NEWS comes at the right time for the good of citizens in China and the UK."
