Pandemic? What Pandemic?
Recent headlines about an outbreak of avian flu at a turkey farm in Suffolk made for grim reading. But what does it all mean? Is there really a threat to humans from turkeys having flu? Charlotte Smith, Consultancy Manager at Teed Business Continuity says the answer is emphatically: Yes
Birds do get flu, but the kind of flu they have been getting since the first outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 is potentially far more deadly. The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu virus has become endemic in poultry in several Asian countries. Whilst still primarily a disease of birds, H5N1 has infected over 250 people in 11 countries through close contact with poultry. The genetic make up of the virus means it could adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. New flu viruses that have adapted to humans cause flu pandemics.
Humans will have little or no immunity to a new virus and thus the death toll is likely to be devastating; the H5N1 virus bears striking similarities to the one that caused the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 resulting in 50 million deaths. That virus was spread by soldiers returning home from the war; today's increased global travel would almost certainly enable a new virus to be carried worldwide within weeks.
Aside from the headlines about the avian flu outbreak in the UK, tucked away in other columns of the papers there continue to be reports of human deaths from H5N1. The WHO constantly monitors the number of confirmed human cases of avian flu with 274 reported since 2003. 167 have subsequently died. That these deaths are happening in sufficiently far-off places may appear to give no real cause for concern, but we cannot afford to be complacent. The fact is that as more people become infected there is an increased risk of the virus mutating into a form transmissible between humans. As many experts have said, it is not a case of if a pandemic occurs, it is when.
When is the key issue. Pandemics are difficult to predict because it is almost impossible to say when the virus will mutate into a human form. That is why steps should be taken now to ensure we are adequately prepared. Once a pandemic is declared, the speed at which the virus is likely to spread will leave little room for organisations to take effective mitigating actions.
The WHO, international governments and other authorities are urging communities to prepare themselves by establishing and testing contingency arrangements. The UK Health Department's Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan shows how the Department will respond to a pandemic and advises businesses to ensure they have their own plans in place.
The onus is on organisations to prepare themselves and be aware of their social and corporate responsibilities. Businesses are advised to act now by updating existing business continuity arrangements to incorporate pandemic preparedness. Traditionally business continuity plans focus on maintaining business operations in the event of loss of buildings and/or infrastructure, whereas the focus of a pandemic business continuity plan is on the impacts arising from a significant loss of the organisation's most important asset, its staff. Analysing the potential impacts of a pandemic and identifying contingencies and workarounds to be adopted through all phases of an outbreak will allow organisations to be one step ahead and ensure they are accountable to stakeholders.
To start the pandemic planning process, organisations should state what the objectives and aims of the plan are and identify the worst case scenario(s) that could occur as a result of a pandemic. This provides the necessary focus when undertaking an analysis of critical processes that need to be maintained during the different phases of a pandemic.
Many of the issues and actions identified within the plan preparation phase can be implemented without the need for a significant outlay of revenue through taking practical steps to review and upgrade current practices. However consideration should be given to identifying a budget appropriate to funding requirements in the event of a pandemic.
At the outset of the planning process, consider how your organisation would cope with up to 50% absenteeism, due to staff being ill, caring for dependents or not wishing to leave home for fear of infection.
Identify the critical processes and the key people needed to maintain them. Can you guarantee that you will continue to obtain essential supplies to keep these processes operational? Ask suppliers and contractors to confirm they have contingency plans in place to maintain their services in a pandemic situation. Will existing networking capabilities stand up to increased usage?
Are staff sufficiently knowledgeable to be able to take over in a colleague's absence? How will they get to work if public transport is disrupted and have you considered how to protect employees from infection once they reach the workplace? Hygiene is absolutely critical in reducing the spread of infection; educating staff in good hygiene practice both at work and home is essential.
There will, inevitably, be economic implications for all businesses caused by a reduction of operations or demand. Larger organisations are likely to be able to put in sufficient measures to withstand these, but smaller firms may find that normal operations are curtailed, consequently reducing their ability to recover post pandemic.
On the other hand, there could be opportunities for diversification as demand increases for certain products should a pandemic be declared. Drugs, medicines and masks could outstrip supply as people start to stockpile, together with foodstuffs and other essentials.
Above all, communicate. Tell staff, customers and stakeholders how the organisation intends to deal with a pandemic situation, before, during and after an outbreak. Disruption is likely to be less if people know what to expect, what they should do and can think through the potential impacts.
There is a view that avian flu is another Y2K and will come to nothing. But this is very different; this is about people, not computers. It does not take long to work out that without sufficient staff, businesses could see a significant downturn in efficiency and in turn, profitability, but by taking action now, organisations can at least prepare for the worst.
We can no longer dismiss avian flu as someone else's problem. It has arrived on our doorstep, despite what were perceived to be tight bio-security measures. We do not yet know how it ended up in Suffolk, nor do we know if it has been passed to wild birds. If it has, then H5N1 could show itself in this country again. Every time an outbreak occurs, humans could become infected, thereby increasing the risk of the virus mutating and taking us one step closer to a pandemic.
Charlotte Smith, Consultancy Manager, Teed Business Continuity
